Perth Laboratory – Public Seminar Series 2009

Water Futures for Western Australia 2008-2030

Jonathan F. Thomas
Resource Economics Unit

Thursday 19 February 2009 at 3.30pm, CSIRO Auditorium

PowerPoint Presentation
(800 kB)

Abstract

Estimates of water use in 2008 were made for 60 ANZSIC-defined user groups in nineteen regions covering Western Australia. The Department of Water’s WRL licensing data base was used as the prime data source. WRL codes are not ANZSIC-based, and it was necessary to employ supplementary data from the WA Water Corporation, irrigation cooperatives and publications of the Australian Bureau of Statistics dealing with population, agriculture, water use and household bore ownership to arrive at ANZSIC-based water use estimates for forward projections.

A scenario approach was taken, producing High, Medium and Low projections of water use. In addition a review was made of recent publications on climate change and their possible impacts on water use, and used to create a fourth “Climate-dependent” scenario.

The MONASH-TERM regional economic model was used to generate projections of industry output, value added, and employment in each region under alternative economic growth scenarios. “Medium growth” population projections were provided by the WA Department of Planning and Infrastructure, and these were modified for the other scenarios. The projected growth rates in these economic and demographic variables were then used, selectively, as indicators of potential growth in water use by region and user group.

It was estimated that water use in Western Australia could increase from approximately 2,300 GL in 2008 to around 3,365 GL by 2030 under the Medium scenario. The implied rate of growth of 1.75%/year is significantly lower than that which occurred between 2000 and 2008 (3.2%/year). Demand management practices were assumed to remain in place throughout the projection period. Significant additional water demands are nevertheless projected for Perth-Peel, the mining sector and for irrigated agriculture.

Climate change may impact water use by changing unit water demands, by structural economic influences and through the operation of greenhouse policies. Defensive expenditure s could also have an impact through their influence on the level of economic activity. The regions where water demands are most likely to be increased by climate changes are precisely those where depressed surface and groundwater yields are expected, namely in the Greenough, Moore, Perth and Peel Regions.

About the speaker

Jonathan Thomas has an honours degree in Politics, Philosophy and Economics from Oxford University, and post-graduate studies at the Oxford University Institute of Economics and Statistics.

He has undertaken many assignments in regional economic development planning and the economics of natural resources and the environment. He joined CSIRO in 1976 to work on the economics of catchment land use planning in the Darling Range and later on the economics of water demand and groundwater. From 1988 to 1997 he was Assistant Chief of the Division of Water Resources at Floreat Park.

Jonathan established the Resource Economics Unit as an independent consultancy in 1997, using a network of associated professionals in natural resource-related disciplines. REU’s many clients have included:

• Economic Regulation Authority
• Department of Water
• Department of Environment and Conservation
• Department of Industry and Resources
• Swan Catchment Council
• Kwinana Industries Council
• Corangamite Catchment Management Authority, Victoria
• Dairy Australia
• National Land and Water Resources Audit
• National Dryland Salinity Program
• Academy of Technological Sciences and Engineering
• Institution of Engineers (Australia).

Jonathan is about to undertake water demand work as part of the CSIRO South-west Western Australia Sustainable Yields project.

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