Perth Laboratory – Public Seminar Series 2009

Potential Impacts of a Changing Climate on Water Supply in the Mgeni Catchment, South Africa

Mark Summerton
Planning Analyst, Umgeni Water, South Africa

Thursday 1 October 2009 at 3.30pm, CSIRO Auditorium

Abstract

For effective water resources management, all 'stressors' that may impact on balancing future water supply and demand must be assessed. Hydrologists have recently begun making headway towards assessing a previously ignored 'stressor', viz. the impact of a changing climate. At Umgeni Water, a bulk water utility in South Africa, a process has been initiated to quantify potential impacts, initially on strategic catchments using daily physical-conceptual hydrological modelling. Preliminary results indicate that streamflow could increase by up to 2.6 and 5.3 fold by the year 2065 and 2100 respectively, mostly in the currently dry winter months. Furthermore, inter-annual variability could decrease. This could increase risks of flooding and compromise dam safety. Should additional streamflow improve water yields, climate change could potentially benefit cash flows by delaying capital expenditure on projects to improve assurance of supply. Regardless, it is imperative that the hydrological consequences of a changing climate be included in water development, disaster risk and system operating plans.

About the speaker

For the past twelve years Mark has been providing scientific and technical services relating to water resources management for a large water service provider in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa. During this time he has developed a passion for being able to provide holistic solutions to water management challenges using a combination of assessment and monitoring, water resources planning, hydrology, water quality and GIS. Currently he is involved in assessing the possible impacts of a changing climate on the future supply of water. He is registered with the South African Council for Natural Scientific Professions (SACNASP) and is a committee member of the South African National Committee of IAHS (SANCIAHS). In 2009 Mark was awarded the Visiting International Fellowship for exemplary work in the environmental and water resources profession by the Environmental and Water Resources Institute (EWRI) branch of the American Society of Civil Engineers (ASCE).

Mark graduated from the School of Bioresources Engineering and Environmental Hydrology at the University of KwaZulu-Natal in 1995 with an MSc degree, and subsequently maintained a close association with this School. This includes being a guest lecturer for their Water Planning and System Analysis module, and an external examiner of several postgraduate theses.

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