Perth Laboratory – Public Seminar Series 2008

Incorporating Household Behaviour into the iSDP Model: A Scenario Analysis of Projected Demand

¹Villaphong Xayavong, ²Sorada Tapsuwan, ¹Michael Burton and ¹Ben White
¹School of Agricultural Resource Economics, University of Western Australia
²CSIRO Land and Water

Thursday 19 June 2008 at 3.30pm, CSIRO Auditorium

Abstract

This purpose of this study is to develop and incorporate a behaviourally-based forecasting framework for residential end use demand into the integrated Source Demand Planning (iSDP) model. The iSDP model is a tool that provides a structured framework for comparing supply and demand options for current and future water use. While the iSDP model allows a more technocratic approach to demand analysis, its capability to capture consumers’ behavioural changes in response to changes in demand management policies, such as changes in pricing or water restrictions, changes in household income, changes in rainfall and temperature patterns, or changes in other factors that may affect water demand is limited. To improve upon this limitation, we incorporated household elasticities to price and other demand altering variables into the iSDP model. Results from this study are demand forecasts under various pricing and regulatory scenarios which may help curb demand and allow for a deferral in future supply augmentation.

About the speaker – Dr Villaphong Xayavong

Dr Vilaphonh Xayavong is a Research Fellow at the School of Agricultural Resource Economics, University of Western Australia (UWA). He is currently working on understanding urban water demand for improved resource management through the use of the integrated Supply Demand Planning (iSDP) model as part of the Flagship Collaboration Research Fund project between CSIRO and the UWA.

Before joining the UWA, Dr Xayavong worked in the Department of Applied and International Economics and the Department of Finance, Banking and Property at Massey University, New Zealand. His research interests include applied economics, development economics and the application of quantitative economic modelling such as CGE, agent based and macro and micro simulations. He has a Bachelors degree in Civil Engineering Ecole de Superieure et de l’ Achitecture from Vientiane, Laos and a PhD in Economics from Massey University.

About the speaker – Dr Michael Burton

Dr Michael Burton is an Associate Professor at the School of Agricultural and Resource Economics, the University of Western Australia. He has extensive experience in applied economics relating to agricultural/resource and environmental economics, with a particular emphasis on demand analysis using both market and stated preference data. He has over 50 referred journal articles, and is currently working on issues relating on water demand, consumer acceptance of new animal breeding technologies, and GM food, and environmental values.

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